3 Predictions for 2023
By Adam Ryan
Three predictions for 2023
- The ad market will negatively impact the media darlings and the newsletter giants. Morning Brew & Industry Dive coming off years of double-digit growth, will grow less than 10%. Morning Brew will hit around $75M up from $70M, and ID will hit $115M, up from $110M. This means more layoffs or significantly less marketing spend which will cause delayed growth.
- Penn will not crack the top 5 in any market for their sportsbook. The reality will set in that Barstool will not enable Penn to evolve from its kind-of-crap casino reputation. In reality, Barstool should have just raised $100M at $400M and launched their own sportsbook. As an extension to their ecosystem, it would have been a home run, but that’s not the expectation they’re carrying. Erika Nardini will step away.
- Podcast growth goes from 31% YoY to less than 10%. Companies will be tightening their ad spending and it’s sure as hell not going into audio ads. There’s little to no data in the podcast game. Until data is built around the listener, the chLookannel is too brand and less performance. Ads have been a huge part of the growth for Spotify. for them to hurt next year as well as iHeart and SiriusXM.
Three industry-moving predictions
- TikTik will be forced to sell to a US company. The question is, who can buy it? You need about $100B (TikTok will do $9B in revenue in 2022) to get the deal done for the US. My bet. Disney. They’ll sell off ESPN for $60B-$70B (based off MGM selling for 5-6X to Amazon) to ensure they have the cash for the deal and not worry about anti-trust. The reality is TikTok is more of an entertainment company than it is a social company, and there’s no better company in the world to dominate in the entertainment space than Disney. Plus, it’s the legacy move for Igert that will then trigger the purchase of Candle. Guess who used to be the CEO of TikTok? Kevin Mayer, the CEO of Candle.
- Bloomberg will sell. The most infamous content-to-commerce business out there will look for a new home. Their Founder is getting old and probably doesn’t care to be in the weeds anymore. Bloomberg has the dataset that business media companies dream of with their terminal business. They also have one of the best “high-signal” media arms in the US. Who’s a buyer? At $40B you’ll need someone with deep pockets and the confidence to have multiple core competencies. I’ll take Comcast.
- Meta launches a Twitter competitor… as a stand-alone app. Zuck is has been Zuckin up with all his bets on the metaverse. He needs something that gets Wall Street amped, and whatever he does, he is going to have to build it since the government won’t let him buy it. With Elon making pretty absurd moves and lowering the quality of Twitter, Meta has a clear opportunity to build a competitor and capitalize on its distribution. On top of that, there is no company in the world with better ad user monetization than Meta. It also fills a large gap for Meta regarding “mindset” platforms. Facebook is for connecting with friends/family, Insta is for aspiration and inspiration, and Twitter is for learning and being in the know. If Meta pulls it off, Elon will have to sell at least 25% of his stake in Tesla to cover margin calls for his Twitter debt. It’ll be a slippery slope of madness.
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Workweek launched Unwrapped for your Google Calendar. It not only tells you how many hours you are in meetings, your work bestie (shout out Becca), and your persona (mine was Jimmy Fallon).
I spent 1,710 hours in meetings, 683 hours with Becca, Wednesday is my busiest day, and I met a total of 759 people this year. Bonkers. Goal next year. Lower this by a lot
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