WORKWEEK

Russia used a moment in which Western Europe was about as hamstrung by energy shortages as ever to try and invade Ukraine, assuming their leverage as a big exporter of gas and oil would retard the West’s response. Fortunately, they were pretty wrong about that; imo, the rest of the world has actually been quite swift and unified in its responses. Notably however, energy sanctions haven’t been implemented yet, countries the world over are still importing Russian oil & gas, though it now sounds like they’re officially on the table.

A helpful map of Russian O&G flows into Europe. If it looks like a circulatory system that’d be hard to rip out… that’s the point!

To summarize the above, this is the umpteenth twentieth / twenty first century war that’s at least in some part about fossil fuels. 

In parallel, the IPCC released a new report this week as part of their sixth ever assessment of human induced climate change. Last year’s report was a big news item upon release; the IPCC only does a full assessment once every seven years. It covered the science itself and scale of the challenge. Things like, based on different projections, how much will observable temperatures on the Earth increase by 2100?

This year’s report covers the causes as well as the forecast impacts of the scenarios outlined in last year’s report. OK Nick, how is this connected to Russia invading Ukraine? Well, this year’s IPCC report basically documents what is likely to happen because of all the fossil fuels the world has burned over the past few hundred years and continues to burn to produce the lion’s share of its primary energy. 

Don’t take it from me though. Take it from Svitlana Krakovska, who is a climate scientist at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute and who co-authored the IPCC report:

Someone could [say the] IPCC is not a political body, and should only assess science related to climate change. Let me assure you that this human-induced climate change and war against Ukraine have … the same roots. They are fossil fuels and humanity’s dependence on them… (From Bloomberg Green)

WHAT’S IN THE REPORT

Not that we’d want anyone to sugarcoat it for us, but the report itself as well as the world’s reception of it minced no words. 

Yesterday, the Secretary General of the United Nations said:

Today’s IPCC report is an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership.

Really makes you want to get up and go about your day, doesn’t it 😬.

What’s in the report itself? Here’s a quick summary of conclusions and graphs I found to be most important from my own (quick) scan:

• There’s no going back: Global warming that overshoots targets of 1.5°C – an oft referenced figure – would include irreversible impacts, i.e. changes that can’t be rolled back even if global warming reverses course later on…
• It’s here already: Plus, we’re already seeing the impacts of climate change globally, that have led to “widespread adverse impacts and related… damages to nature and people,” some of which are already irreversible, too.
• Compounding complexity: Climate is an insanely complex system. It will get even more complex as our climate changes. Risks and impacts will become more difficult to predict and manage as global warming increases, with “compounding overall risk and risks cascading across sectors and regions…”
• Widespread impact…: Roughly half of all humans live in areas that will be highly vulnerable to hazards brought on by climate change.
• …Rife with inequalities: Many of the people who live in countries that contribute the least emissions to the atmosphere in any given year will be the worst afflicted by climate change’s impacts. E.g.? GP in Africa is already ~13.6% lower than it would be had climate change not continued since 1991.
• Compounding complexity: Climate is an insanely complex system. It will get even more complex as our climate changes. Risks and impacts will become more difficult to predict and manage as global warming increases, with “compounding overall risk and risks cascading across sectors and regions…”
• Water is king: Water will be one of the key commodities in which climate change manifests most acutely. Half of the world’s population could experience significant water shortages annually in our lifetimes. At 2°C of warming, this scarcity will be “chronic” for ~3B people.
• It’s not all about us: if global warming hits or exceeds 2°C, 18% of land species will face significant risk of extinction. At 4°C, that number goes up to half. Half of all species!
• Water is king: Water will be one of the key commodities in which climate change manifests most acutely. Half of the world’s population could experience significant water shortages annually in our lifetimes. At 2°C of warming, this scarcity will be “chronic” for ~3B people.
• 2030, a key inflection point: The next decade is critically important to determine which warming paths are more likely and which ones are within reach. It’s not about 2050 as much as 2030. The last sentence of the report sums things up well, describing the window for action as “brief and rapidly closing.” 

In case you hoped their visuals might be less heavy hitting, this one is perhaps one of the most approachable (from the report’s ‘Summary for Policymakers‘). It outlines different illustrative paths that the world and consequently, global warming can take. As you can see, a lot of the trajectory is completely decided by 2030:

Long story short, the best bet is to make meaningful strides towards reducing and removing emissions from the atmosphere by 2030. 

This isn’t news; it will require significant innovation (real hardware engineering) and investment (both financial and human capital). That’s why we’re here after all.

MY TAKE

Here’s a contrarian take on all of this. You don’t need to read the IPCC report (saved you 3,000+ pages). You don’t even need to read the summary. Or the slew of articles summarizing it or telling you what your opinion about it should be. And If you skipped over the middle section of this email, you don’t need to double back to it. 

I’m not saying it isn’t important work. I’m not saying I want the IPCC to stop what they’re doing. It is important to understand where we’re at with respect to climate change and global warming. And what the consequences will be if the Earth continues to warm 1.5°C, 2°C, or even more than that.

At the same time, if you’re already doing your part – putting one foot in front of another to make an impact wherever you deem most valuable – … then that’s solid! If everyone the world over did the same, our trajectory would look different.

If you want to make more or a different impact, here’s the familiar list of things you can consider:

• For talent: Consider working in climate tech! I regularly post jobs in these emails and on my job board and am happy to answer direct emails and to connect you to companies myself.
• For investors: Invest in climate tech! We cover cool companies all the time to which I’m happy to connect you. For instance? The IPCC report tell you water scarcity is going to get scary. Keep Cool tells you about companies tackling the challenge (see here).  
• For the climate curious: Ask questions! Share resources you find interesting, whether on a climate tech company or otherwise, with someone else. Then refer them to steps #1 and #2 above as appropriate 🤝

The worst thing you can do is burn out and take yourself out of the game. You all have lots to contribute in the coming decades, regardless of our current global warming trajectory.