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Bonjour Millionaire, Writing to you with Topicals eye patches on (they are nice and new to me from Sephora sale), my signature lip (not an affiliate link because I don't do that), the same perfectwhitetee sweatshirt I won't shut up about, and a pair of sweats that I don't recommend because they are unflattering so I refuse to give them limelight. I wish I was sitting on my new Jennifer chair but my husband didn't get me 1. </3  Happy Birthday Eve, Daniel. Can I please have this? You can sit on it!! Was this email forwarded to you? Sponsored by Omnisend What are you doing to grease your "social follower" --> "email subscriber" pipeline?  🎵and a forecast is none of theeeese 🎵 Every strong business I've worked in or with takes forecasting very seriously. Because when you forecast you buy into said forecast and when you miss you can get fired. Was that harsh? Am I harsh? Don't answer that! My point is a forecast is not a shot in hell and it's also not a wish. Because of course, a forecast is a promise with YOUR name on it, among others, on which the whole company places its bets. Making the right promises and refusing the wrong ones is how those bets stay smart. And safe. A few thoughts on how to make sure to ground in math. A FORECAST IS A CONTRACT, NOT A WISH.Forecasting at scale involves a lot of moving pieces. So the 1st question you should really be asking is: am I being asked to own a number that I have the spend to hit. I am a big budget marketer by nature, hence why I have big forecasts. Actually in my agency days 1 time a client fired us because they were launching a new product and we did the bottoms up P&L and modeled the MER expected on their target revenue number and we showed them the real math and they said, and I quote: "Why would I launch that?" We said, and I quote, "Do you have to?" The product never made it to market. Sucks to be the person in the room doing the math. But even worse to be the person in the room who doesn't believe the math. I'm no mathematician (religious studies major, thank you very much), but the forecast and the plan have to make sense and it's easy to lie and wish when talking about a product that is launching in 18-months. But in 18-months I don't want our name in that cell history with fake bull shit. It will always come back to you! As it should! ANYTHING IS POSSIBLESo let's say someone wants to hit a specific target. We can totally hit that target! How much can we spend? At what profitability? What can I offer and when do you want it? Anything is possible, and I've always said you can change your offer and change your life. What you can't do is stay stagnant in your existing schema. Something must change if the math must change!  ONE TIME AT A CHRISTMAS PARTYOne of my old clients and someone who was their Head of Growth who I deeply respect and who is smart as shit was being spoken of by their CEO. The CEO was explaining that the Head of Growth completely over-forecasted for holiday and was telling everyone that he was very overly confident. Completely overshot. At a Christmas party it will be remembered that you oversold what was possible. It'll probably not be remembered if you under forecasted but nobody wants to work with you if you're growing something slowly so it's always important to just remember that there's two sides to the coin. Pick your poison (AKA forecast high and do everything physically possible to hit it).  INTENSITYI think the biggest thing about a forecast is remember you have to back into it. Forecasting can become dailies and dailies to become hourlies. I have a hourly dashboard that I'm looking at that shows me where I should be on the hour based on my daily, which is based on my weekly which is based on my monthly, you understand where I'm going??? A forecast is just the goal divided by the time. And if you run out of time, you can't make the goal so a forecast can only come true if you work it. I also don't really buy software that doesn't have an hourly view. I am pretty intense. A number with your name on it should be 1 you chose, that you can defend, that you were set up to hit, and that doubles as both defensive and offensive strategy. That's forecasting. Everything else is wishcasting, and sets your whole business up for failure. It’s harder up front, but saves your keister later. Wishing you well! Sponsored by Drivepoint Did you miss the 13-week cash flow template I shared last week? FORWARD ME YOUR WORST Got a BFCM email or text that made you buy (or text STOP)? Send it my way, and it might get ranked live when Amanda Cole and I tear through them on Dec 8. Should be fun 🧛♀️ 🧛♀️ GO-TO-MEME  As mentioned, Happy Birthday eve to my better half, Daniel. I bought him a belt that he will 100% want to return. I've thrown away the receipt. His love language will be gifts eventually. Au revoir, | |||||||
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