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| Happy Monday, Fintech Takers! Sorry for the late arrival time on today’s newsletter. It was a busy day, coming off of a rather astonishing weekend. Here’s a partial of what happened between Friday and Sunday:
In short, I know nothing! But thanks, as always, for reading along as I try to figure things out. Today, we have plenty of interesting fintech questions to dig into. - Alex P.S. — If you’re a stablecoin skeptic (a position I completely understand!) you’ll want to tune into this session that I am having with Western Union and Rain in a few weeks. I promise you’ll learn something. Was this email forwarded to you? Cyrano de Bergerac by Zacharie Heince. 3 FINTECH NEWS STORIES#1: Pagaya Sues KlarnaWhat happened?A fintech company that I am personally obsessed with just sued one of its former partners:
So what?Consumer lending + Complex fintech infrastructure + A spicy lawsuit between former partners = a topic tailor-made for me. Seriously, inject this one directly into my veins. In case you’re not familiar with Pagaya, it operates an embedded second-look lending network. Second-look lending isn’t a new concept, but Pagaya introduced a new wrinkle, as I wrote about last year:
Pagaya provided this second-look lending capability to Klarna, specifically for its “Fair Financing” product in the U.S., which is a point-of-sale installment loan, typically with a term between 3 and 36 months and interest rates ranging from 0% to 35.99%. The product — which has been one of the fastest growing products for Klarna over the last few years, especially in the U.S. — has historically been distributed through Klarna’s merchant partners. However, the company has stated that its ambition is to move more of that lending volume from merchants over to its own direct acquisition channels, particularly for repeat customers, which is a common tactic in BNPL. What Pagaya is alleging is that Klarna “distilled” Pagaya’s proprietary approach to subprime installment loan underwriting, during the course of the companies’ four-year partnership, replicated that underwriting capability internally, and then wrongly terminated its commercial relationship with Pagaya in order to cut it out of the business that they had built together. This is a genuinely weird claim to make. Pagaya is not arguing that Klarna stole its subprime underwriting model, because — and this is the thing almost no one covering this case has gotten right — Klarna never had access to Pagaya's underwriting model. Klarna wasn't embedding Pagaya's model inside its decision engine. It was passing rejected applications over to Pagaya (without the end customer's knowledge) for Pagaya to underwrite using its proprietary model, inside Pagaya's decision engine. So what Pagaya is actually arguing is that Klarna sat next to this arrangement for four years, carefully observed the outputs the model produced — the approve/decline decisions, the pricing, the subsequent repayment performance of every loan — and used those observations to backwards-engineer a competing model of its own. I find this argument odd for two reasons. First, as I've written before, I doubt Pagaya's model is as special as Pagaya thinks it is. My read has always been that Pagaya's business is fundamentally an arbitrage — it monetizes the gap between the sophistication and risk appetite of the lenders on one side of its network and the investors on the other. It does not possess some proprietary sorcery for pricing subprime credit that the rest of the industry hasn't cracked. Second, even if you buy the premise that Pagaya has built a superior underwriting model to what Klarna had built (or was capable of building on its own), you still have to prove that Klarna misappropriated it. That seems like a tough thing to prove! Where exactly is the line between using your partner’s trade secret illegally and getting smarter by working next to them for four years? Because that second thing is legal, and it's what every partner in every commercial relationship does. If I learn to run a better lending program because I spent four years watching a great one operate next to me, did I steal something — or did I just learn? That question does not have a clean answer. Pagaya is arguing its way around it "on information and belief," which is lawyer-speak for “we're inferring this from Klarna's suspicious-looking new capabilities and its bragging on earnings calls, but we don't have the evidence yet.” Maybe discovery turns up an internal message that amounts to Klarna executives saying, "let's just train the model on the Pagaya results." Or maybe it turns up four years of Klarna data scientists gradually getting better at their jobs. Those are very different cases, and right now Pagaya is asserting the first while only able to prove it had the opportunity for it. To be fair, there are some other allegations in this lawsuit from Pagaya that have nothing to do with this model distillation argument. These other claims allege, among other things, that Klarna stopped paying its invoices from December 2025 through March 2026 and that it refused to cooperate on securitizations it was contractually obligated to support. These seem much more like run-of-the-mill contract breach claims, and we will have to see how they end up getting resolved. For what it’s worth, Klarna says that all of Pagaya’s allegations are false and that it will defend itself vigorously in court. #2: A Bunch of Debanking Stuff HappensWhat happened?The Department of Justice is investigating the big banks for debanking:
Reputation risk is officially out as a supervisory tool:
Citizens Bank is losing deposits because of its business relationship with companies that operate Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention centers:
And the CFPB has issued guidance encouraging lenders to consider immigration status when determining a prospective borrower’s ability to repay a loan:
So what?I want to analyze these specific stories, but first a little context. There are lots of different types of risks in banking and, over many decades, bankers and regulators have developed a shared framework for how to think about those risks and a shared language for how to talk about those risks. When that shared framework and shared language are working well, regulators are able to subtly steer the banks they supervise away from areas that are excessively risky, without ever explicitly telling them what to do, completely scaring them away from taking any risks at all, or broadcasting signs of trouble that might negatively impact the market’s perception of the banks. This subtle steering happens, primarily, through supervisory exams. Bank examiners spend weeks embedded inside a bank each year, and the informal feedback they provide — a comment that lingers a little too long on a particular loan portfolio, a question about whether management really understands the risks in a certain business line — is often all it takes to change a bank's behavior. When examiners want to be a little less subtle, they can issue written findings (MRAs & MRIAs) that go directly to a bank’s board, downgrade a bank’s CAMELS rating, or enter into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with a bank. These are more pointed actions that often have specific impacts on banks’ operations and balance sheets, but, crucially, they are confidential. If regulators want to dispense with subtlety altogether, they can publish guidance (interagency statements, "Dear CEO" letters, supervisory circulars, etc.) or pursue formal public enforcement actions (consent orders, cease and desist orders, civil money penalties, etc.) against specific banks. The theory of debanking that I am most sympathetic to is that bank regulatory agencies have, in recent years, let political considerations overly influence their perceptions of the risks that banks were taking and allowed that influence to improperly seep into their confidential supervisory processes and published guidance, resulting in bank decisions — which accounts to open, which loans to make, which accounts to close, etc. — that weren’t entirely based on the individual banks’ business judgement. The key to this theory — what we might call “debanking with a lowercase d” — is that it doesn’t require a smoking gun. There doesn’t need to have been some centralized directive or explicit instruction to close specific consumer or commercial accounts (this is what we might refer to as “debanking with an uppercase D” or, as others call it, “Operation Chokepoint 2.0”), which is why this theory of debanking persists despite the lack of bombshells coming from the debanking investigations by the OCC and the House Committee on Financial Services (these investigations mostly uncovered anecdotal stories of account closures and internal bank policies on industry-specific risk management). With that framework in mind, let's get back to our news stories. I find the DOJ’s investigation into debanking to be strange and troubling. Per the Wall Street Journal, Pirro's office is reportedly examining whether the banks violated FIRREA, the post-S&L-crisis fraud statute that DOJ has long used to go after financial institutions. FIRREA is a fraud statute — to make it stick, you need underlying fraud that affects a financial institution. But a bank closing an account it considers too risky, which is what most "debanking" actually is, doesn't have an obvious fraud victim. Within the bounds of anti-discrimination laws like ECOA (which are fairly specific), declining or exiting a customer on risk grounds isn't a crime — and it's even harder to paint as fraud. Reaching for FIRREA looks less like a prosecutor following the evidence and more like one casting around for any statute that fits their boss’s desired outcome (this seems like the most likely explanation given President Trump’s personal grievances on this topic). A better approach for addressing the subtle, behind-the-scenes form of debanking would be to remove as much subjectivity from the bank supervisory process as possible. If you’re worried about politics influencing the opinions of bank examiners, the obvious solution is to eliminate the ability for examiners to criticize banks on matters of opinion. This is, essentially, what the current administration is doing by eliminating reputational risk from their supervisory programs and interagency guidance. I think this move makes sense. Reputation risk is a very tough, subjective thing to assess. However, it’s important to note that it is still a valid risk, even if examiners won’t be allowed to opine on it anymore. Citizens Bank is getting a reminder of this right now. Jersey City alone is pulling roughly $265 million out of the bank, about $150 million of it already moved. And so far Citizens isn't blinking. It has defended the relationships and hasn't committed to ending them. And honestly? That’s good! It’s the system working the way it's supposed to. Reputation risk is being weighed and repriced in the open — by the depositors, municipalities, and institutions who actually bear it — instead of being whispered into a bank's ear during a confidential exam. It should be noted for the record that if Citizens Bank does choose, in response to this pressure, to stop working with these ICE-affiliated companies, that won’t be debanking (lowercase or uppercase). I haven’t seen the CFPB’s new guidance on ability to pay and immigration status be referred to as “debanking,” nor have I seen anyone in the crypto community up in arms about it. However, if you look at the guidance in detail, it appears less like an honest effort to help lenders avoid risk and more like an attempt by the CFPB to discourage lenders from lending money to immigrants, legal or otherwise. The reason I say this is that it’s rigorously non-prescriptive, as the Consumer Finance Monitor article notes:
The practical effect of this guidance will be that lenders will be less likely to lend to anyone they think might be an illegal immigrant, which will, of course, cause legal immigrants (and, likely, some U.S. citizens) to be denied credit. Interestingly, under the last administration, the CFPB and the DOJ issued a joint statement regarding the potential civil rights implications of a creditor’s consideration of an individual’s immigration status under ECOA, which was, at the time, criticized as an attempt to scare lenders into approving immigrants for credit, regardless of their legal status. I’m not sure what term to use to describe that — it’s basically the inverse of debanking … “compelled banking” maybe? — but I do find it interesting that neither the last administration nor the current one seems content to simply let banks make their own decisions. #3: Zelle Announces a StablecoinWhat happened?EWS announced its forthcoming stablecoin:
So what?From what I understand, EWS is going to extend Zelle internationally first — U.S. consumers sending to friends and family in India, with the reverse corridor presumably to follow — and the stablecoin will come online later as the rail underneath. My quick take: This is smart. EWS isn't positioning ZLUSD as a user-facing product; it's the infrastructure that might power one down the road, assuming EWS can win users in a brutally competitive remittance market. It’s a sharp contrast with The Clearing House’s strategy to build a tokenized deposit network to keep deposits inside the bank perimeter, which I wrote about last week. Given that TCH and EWS are both owned by an overlapping collection of the same big U.S. banks, I think it suggests that those banks believe that the biggest crypto-related threat to their deposit franchises is in corporate payments and treasury (where TCH is aiming) versus consumer payments (which is where EWS is focused). Sponsored by Ocrolus Cash flow tells you what a merchant earned. It doesn't tell you how many other lenders they've approached this month, or how their margins hold up against similar businesses. 2 READING RECOMMENDATIONS#1: It's All Debt To Me (by Kate Elengold) 📚I found this exploration of how and why the law treats different forms of consumer debt so differently to be extremely thought provoking. I’d highly recommend giving it a read! #2: REPORT: The Enterprise AI Operating Model Playbook. (by Simon Taylor, Fintech Brainfood) 📚Simon is far more immersed in AI than I am, so I appreciate his dispatches from the future. This report is especially dense with insights. *Bonus: Agents in AML: A Production Playbook from the Investigator's Seat (by Oscilar)📚Examiner scrutiny doesn't grade on plausibility. Seth Sattler, Head of Compliance/AML at Oscilar, lays out what it takes to build an AML agent that survives SOPs, model risk validation, and the questions examiners ask months after deployment. Want to make AML agents work inside your compliance program? Get the playbook from the practitioner's side. 1 QUESTION FROM THE FINTECH TAKES NETWORKThere are a TON of interesting questions being asked in the Fintech Takes Network. I’ll share one question, sourced from the Network, each week. However, if you’d like to join the conversation, please apply to join the Fintech Takes Network. I get why Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe are considering teaming up to launch a stablecoin, but I don’t understand why Coinbase is considering joining them. Circle is stuck in vassalage to Coinbase for quite a while and that relationship is enormously profitable to Coinbase.Why is Coinbase looking beyond USDC?If you have any thoughts on this question, reply to this email or DM me in the Fintech Takes Network! Thanks for the read! Let me know what you thought by replying back to this email. — Alex | |||||||||||
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