{if profile.vars.go_to_millions_user_fitness == true && (time("now") > profile.vars.user_fitness_reviewed_time + 7200) && (time("now") < profile.vars.user_fitness_reviewed_time + 1209600) && (!profile.vars.onboarding_complete_time)} {/if}
Bonjour Millionaire,
Time is a non-renewable resource. Especially when Going-to-Market. This time of year, Pumpkin SKUs are in flight. NYFW has moved on to Spring/Summer. Caitlin Covington did a fall-themed April Fools. Today, we discuss PSL season, and how the key to perfect seasonality is balancing timing + saturation. |
Was this email forwarded to you? |
|
|
ON THIS EPISODE OF GO-TO-MILLIONS |
It’s that time of year when I’m sick of shaving my legs shorts, the weather is finally cooling down to the upper 80s, and the nation is counting the days until the Pumpkin Spice Latte returns to Starbucks. Which is, ahem, August 26. It’s not that I want to drink a PSL right now. It’s that I want the option to drink a PSL. Plus, the vintage memes soothe my soul. |
The PSL was invented in spring 2003 at the Starbucks Liquid Lab, the R&D space at its Seattle headquarters. 2 decades later, it's a perfect lesson in why performance revolves around great timing.
The company had seen success with two other seasonal drinks, including the Peppermint Mocha, now available year-round. (BIG mistake. More on that later.)
Nothing on the Starbucks menu was pumpkin-flavored, so it was a white space. Never mind that the original PSL didn’t contain any actual pumpkin.
Starbucks soft-launched the PSL in 100 stores in just 2 markets (Vancouver and Washington, D.C.) in fall 2003. Customers LOVED it. The PSL launched nationwide in fall 2004, and you know what happened next.
Pumpkin Spice mania struck, and never left. Now, it's become the Pumpkin Spice industrial complex. Every fall brings a new crop of limited-edition pumpkin SKUs. |
Pumpkin Spice Cheerios, Oreos, M&Ms, Hostess cupcakes, Chobani yogurt, Cup Noodles, Pepperidge Farm Milanos, Bonne Maman preserves, and ALL of the protein bars. Long-time Millionaires will remember my fictional pumpkin protein bar drop. Trader Joe’s alone gives me a pumpkin-flavored panic attack. |
No one was surprised by the glut of Pumpkin Spice candles and home fragrances that followed. Really, they kinda started the whole thing. But Pumpkin Spice has also infiltrated personal care through seasonal deodorants, face and sheet masks, body wash...and beyond. Way, WAY beyond. |
We fall hard for Pumpkin Spice each year.
There have always been people who love autumn, yes. Colorful falling leaves. Fun. New excuse to shop. LOVE.
Crispier temps. Literally cool.
But the fact that it's time-bound is what really powers this success. PSLs feel SPECIAL. Urgent. The same way it feels urgent to enjoy good weather days right now. |
No brand really OWNED autumn until Starbucks.
For decades, retailers and marketers went from back-to-school straight to the holiday season. Halloween shopping was limited to the candy aisle and a pop-up costume store, if you were lucky (?) enough to have a Spirit Halloween in your area.
(Side bar: there were only 60 Spirit Halloweens in 1999. Last year, there were 1,525! Shoulda put them in the pop-up round-up.)
As offensive as this now sounds, Halloween was still largely thought of as a holiday for kids and parents. BOOOOOO! |
That’s changed, of course, but Halloween is still just 1 day a year. Fall is an entire SEASON.
89 days, 20 hours, and 43 minutes this year. September 22-December 21. Of course, the PSL doesn’t align perfectly with that window. They wisely make it available about a month before fall actually starts, when customers are naturally in transition mode. The same reason we're all launching our Fall SKUs right now. Summer Fridays are winding down at the office. Kids are going back to school. Anyone who ever went to school craves new clothes and office supplies.
Spicing up your usual coffee order feels attainably festive. A tasty little tweak to an established beverage routine. It's also got scarcity. The PSL’s a limited-time offer, but availability varies by location. Some stores run out of the syrup early. Others keep it pumping through November.
Scarcity creates demand. Every single fall. |
Eventually, the PSL runs out, and the winter holiday flavors arrive. Don’t cry, because it’s over. Smile, because there are new ways to drink your calories.
Starbucks isn’t the only QSR pushing seasonal, limited-time-only treats. They definitely weren't 1st. But they ARE the one doing it most strategically.
McDonald’s introduced the Shamrock Shake, available ahead of St. Patrick’s Day, in 1970. |
It still comes out every year, but… St. Patrick’s Day is also only 1 day, and not a mainstream holiday (sorry). The opportunity has a low ceiling. But PSL love turning into Pumpkin Spice Mania wasn't an accident. It's also thanks to the rise of Facebook and Twitter - and SBUX's ability to leverage both. Early. |
Starbucks joined both platforms in 2008. The same year, it launched MyStarbucksIdea.com, a site that invited customers to share their ideas for making Starbucks even better.
That’s where Starbucks got the idea for massive, company-changing successes like its rewards program, mobile payments, free wi-fi, and Cake Pops, btw. Re-open it, I say But I digress… Social media became a place for people to 1) talk about their love of the PSL and 2) make fun of people OBSESSED with the PSL. A perfect storm. |
Starbucks wisely welcomed the memes. Better to be looked over than overlooked.
Now, everyone wants a piece of the Pumpkin pie. Starbucks’ competitors have all jumped on the Pumpkin Spice bandwagon. Dunkin’, McDonald’s, Caribou Coffee, Krispy Kreme, and more all have their own PSL knock-offs.
But Pumpkin Spice-ification continues outside the coffee world, too. Wendy’s has a Pumpkin Spice Frosty. |
Last year, 7-11 launched a Pumpkin Spice Slurpee.
I’m still waiting for a Cocofloss Pumpkin Spice flavor, but will settle for Apple Cinnamon in the meantime. It's no strawberry, but we are being seasonal, here. In 2023, the global Pumpkin Spice market was estimated to be worth $1.1B. It’s projected to reach $2.4B by 2031. Oh. My. Gourd.
|
And yet, somehow we still haven’t reached peak Pumpkin Spice. This fall, we’re in for a showdown.
Starbucks has previously revealed that roughly 10% of its overall sales comes from seasonal favorites, with the PSL being #1. As sales lagged in 2024, it launched the PSL the earliest it ever had: August 22. Now, Starbucks’ earnings have been down for 6 straight quarters.
It NEEDS Pumpkin Spice season to be a win in 2025. So, although Dunkin’ dunked on Starbucks by launching its fall menu a few days ago, Seattle had an even-earlier plan. |
Starbucks seems to know and accept that it can’t get the same in-store traffic that it used to. This year, it’s launching more seasonal products that can be enjoyed at home. And they did it in grocery stores starting in JULY.
All of these PSL items will be sold for a limited time, but they’re easier to stockpile than fresh PSLs with my name written on the cup as RE, Arnie, or Aretha.
The earliest brands often win the Pumpkin Spice arms race: because seasonality is about perfect timing, as mentioned. And perfect timing means knowing when enough is enough.
Consumers can only drink so many Pumpkin Spice beverages before they’re ready to (sugar) crash out and drink plain water. |
Oversaturation is everything scarcity and seasonality aren't. And being mindful of this is critical to the success of the PSL, and any other seasonal winners.
If you could have a PSL any time, would it taste as good? Or would more access make the PSL even more of a habit? I suspect familiarity breeds contempt. See: Peppermint Mocha.
Even if the PSL bubble bursts in North America, it’s now popular worldwide. Starbucks sells it in 79 of its 88 markets. We should probably change the saying to “It’s American as pumpkin spice.” |
So, what do we think about SBUX's chances this year?
They've struck lighting in a bottle-sized Venti cup multiple times. I won't be counting them out. I just hope the Heirloom Tomato Latte (HTL) isn’t the next big thing. |
|
|
I hope your weekend has been beautiful, and your autumnal creative is looking both crisp and perfectly-spiced, pumpkin or not. Yours, Ari |
|
|
Get your brand in front of 55,000+ marketers, ecommerce operators, and executives. |
Workweek Media Inc.
1023 Springdale Road, STE 9E
Austin, TX 78721
Want to ruin my day? Unsubscribe. |
|
|
|
